Still, some officials and analysts hold out hope that Mr. Assad's departure would bring greater stability to the region. Many Lebanese, particularly from the Sunni and Christian sects who together make up a majority of the shop online 2011 population, would welcome the end of Syrian intervention. "Lebanon has a democratic process for changing the balance of power," said Nadim Shehadi, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London. "Sometimes this process collapses and violence happens, but in many such cases it's something that Syria had a hand in. So the departure of Assad would be a stabilizing factor for Lebanon." "If Syria disappears from the scene in Lebanon, it will increase the risk of civil conflict," said Ghanem Nuseibah, a partner at Cornerstone Global Associates and head of Middle East risk at Political Capital. "Even politicians who are not pro-Syrian will be feeling a lot of unease about what's happening in Syria because it upsets the equilibrium and the stability that the Syrian regime has provided."If Syria's clout in Lebanon weakens, analysts say, the intricate alliances that hold rival sectarian groups together could break apart, leading to a new civil war.One possibility is that Hezbollah could grow even closer to Iran, creating new friction with other Lebanese parties and—as in the 1970s—turning Lebanon into an arena for broader regional rivalries. Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser under former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, suggested this optimistic scenario: "If at the end of the day, it might turn to be a reasonable secular democratic state, and a state that coach outlet store needs U.S. assistance, then this state might be a partner for a [peace] arrangement."In Lebanon as recently as January, Syria helped forge a new government after the collapse of a coalition joining Hezbollah and the pro-Western prime minister, Saad Hariri. As a result, Lebanon is now led by an alliance of Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that rules southern Lebanon and enjoys material support from both Iran and Syria.
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online le vendredi 29 avril 2011
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